Quick Summary: Exception-based planning helps focus forecast review on the areas most likely to require attention. Forecast Risk and Forecast Bias highlight uncertainty and recurring forecast patterns, while Exception Attributes identify specific conditions such as recent activity, outliers, promotions, forecast adjustments, or missing forecast data. These can be used to prioritize investigation and leave stable demand unchanged. Comments can then be used to record the assumptions and business context behind important forecast decisions.
Exception-based planning
Exception-based planning focuses attention on demand that is uncertain, consistently forecast too high or too low, or meets specific conditions that may require review.
Forecast Risk and Forecast Bias can be added as hierarchy attributes to group demand according to forecast uncertainty and performance patterns. Exception Attributes provide additional ways to identify demand requiring attention based on its history, promotions, forecast changes, and other planning conditions.
This allows planning effort to be directed toward areas where intervention is most likely to improve the forecast.
Stable demand can remain unchanged, while exceptions can be investigated and refined where required.
Exception Attributes
Exception Attributes identify specific demand and forecast conditions that can help narrow down where planning attention is required.
The periods referred to as recent cover the last three periods, excluding the current period. Future refers to all future periods within the planning horizon.
Exception Attribute | Definition |
Recent | The last 3 periods, excluding the current period. |
Future | All future periods within the planning horizon. |
Recent History | The recent history value is greater than 0 within the last 3 periods. |
Any History | Sales occurred within the last 36 periods (including the current one). |
Outliers | Outliers exist in any past period. |
Recent Outliers | Outliers exist within the recent period. |
Recent Promotions | Promotions are recorded within the recent period. |
Future Promotions | Promotions are recorded for future periods. |
Forecast Adjustments | Adjustments have been applied to future final forecasts. |
Forecast Overrides | Overrides have been applied to future final forecasts. |
Forecast No History | A future final forecast exists, but there is no historical data. |
Forecast No Recent History | A future final forecast exists, but there is no recent history. |
History No Forecast | Historical sales exist, but there is no future final forecast. |
Recent History No Forecast | Recent history exists, but there is no future final forecast. |
Unfinalized Forecast | One or more future periods have not had the final forecast set, for example, where the value is Null or Zero. |
Forecast Risk
Forecast Risk reflects the level of demand volatility and uncertainty.
Higher Forecast Risk: Indicates demand that is more variable and difficult to predict
Lower Forecast Risk: Indicates demand that is more stable and predictable
Using Forecast Risk in a hierarchy
Select Setup Hierarchy.
Add Forecast Risk as an attribute.
Select Apply.
Select the required Forecast Risk range.
Review the demand grouped within that range.
Refine the forecast at the selected level where required.
The count indicator shows how many items fall within the selected Forecast Risk range.
All standard planning tools remain available at this level. Forecast changes made to a risk group are distributed to the hierarchy members beneath it. Continue drilling down when a more targeted review is required.
Forecast Bias
Forecast Bias identifies whether forecasts are consistently too high or too low.
Positive Forecast Bias: Indicates consistent over-forecasting
Negative Forecast Bias: Indicates consistent under-forecasting
Using Forecast Bias in a hierarchy
Select Setup Hierarchy.
Add Forecast Bias as an attribute.
Select Apply.
Select the required Forecast Bias range.
Review the demand grouped within that range.
Refine the forecast where required.
Forecast changes made at the Forecast Bias level are distributed to the more detailed hierarchy members beneath it without removing their natural variation.
Using the Analysis view
The Analysis view in the Stats tab provides a structured overview of Forecast Risk or Forecast Bias based on the current hierarchy selection.
To use the Analysis view:
Select the Stats tab.
Select Analysis, located alongside the Linear Chart and Scatter Plot views.
Review how demand is distributed across the available Forecast Risk or Forecast Bias ranges.
Select a range to drill down into the hierarchy members contributing to it.
Continue drilling down through additional hierarchy levels where more detailed analysis is required.
The Analysis view helps identify where the most significant risk or bias is concentrated, allowing planning effort to focus on the areas with the greatest potential impact.
Choosing where to act
Exception-based planning supports several approaches:
Refine a Forecast Risk or Forecast Bias group directly
Drill down to investigate the hierarchy members contributing to the result
Refine only the hierarchy members requiring attention
Leave stable demand unchanged
The objective is to focus planning effort where intervention adds the greatest value rather than reviewing every forecast with the same level of detail.
Recording planning context with Comments
Forecast decisions are often based on assumptions, insights, and business knowledge that may need to be understood during a later planning cycle.
Comments record this context within Demand Planning.
To add a comment:
Select the speech bubble (Comments) icon.
Confirm the hierarchy level displayed in the Comments panel.
Enter the comment.
Select Add Comment.
The comment is saved against the current hierarchy context.
Reviewing comment history
The Comments panel displays previous comments associated with the current hierarchy structure.
At the global level, all comments associated with the current hierarchy structure are visible. As the hierarchy is drilled into, comments are filtered to match the current selection.
Each comment shows the hierarchy level at which it was created.
Higher-level comments can provide broad planning context, while lower-level comments can record decisions for a specific item, location, customer, or other hierarchy member.
⚠️ Watchouts
Forecast Risk does not automatically require a change: Higher risk indicates greater uncertainty, but the underlying demand should still be reviewed before the forecast is refined.
Forecast Bias should be assessed as a pattern: A positive or negative result is most useful when it shows a consistent tendency rather than an isolated forecast error.
Higher-level changes affect members beneath them: Refinements made to a Forecast Risk or Forecast Bias group are distributed to the underlying hierarchy members.
Confirm the hierarchy context before commenting: Comments are saved against the hierarchy level currently displayed in the Comments panel.
💡 Tips
Start with the Analysis view: Review how Forecast Risk or Forecast Bias is distributed before deciding where to investigate further.
Drill down before making targeted changes: A grouped result may contain several contributors with different demand patterns.
Leave stable demand unchanged: Exception-based planning is most effective when effort is focused on areas where intervention is likely to add value.
Record the reason for significant refinements: Comments help preserve assumptions and business context for later planning cycles.
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